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BBM Bersubsidi Naik, Pasar Modal Slow Down Sejenak
Published: 28 Mar 2012 14:50 WIB


IMQ, Jakarta —  Rencana pemerintah untuk menaikkan harga BBM eceran bersubsidi pada awal April 2012 akan direspon dengan “guncangan kecil” di pasar modal.

Para pelaku dan analis pasar modal menilai kebijakan kenaikan harga BBM tersebut dinilai rasional dan dapat dipahami pelaku bisnis. Secara umum, pergerakan IHSG juga sudah berdapatasi dengan kebijakan fiskal tersebut sehingga harga-harga ekuitas juga dianggap “priced in” dengan dampak inflasi yang akan ditimbulkan.

Besaran kenaikan harga BBM sebesar Rp1.500 atau sekitar 33,33% tersebut dinilai cukup wajar dan rasional serta sesuai dengan ekspektasi pasar. Dengan kenaikan sebesar itu, pasar menilai para emiten hanya tertekan kinerjanya karena inflasi dalam periode relatif singkat.

Kenaikan BBM sebesar Rp1.500 tersebut diprediksi mendorong inflasi sekitar 1,3-1,5% pada Maret, karena harga kebutuhan pokok sudah merangkak naik sekalipun faktanya kenaikan BBM masih diperdebatkan di DPR. Dorongan inflasi masih akan terjadi hingga April-Mei. Pemerintah sendiri menargetkan inflasi year-on-year hingga akhir tahun sebesar 5,4% plus minus 1%.

Akibat kenaikan inflasi akan mendorong otoritas moneter BI untuk mengubah BI rate di atas 5,75%. Jika ini terjadi tentu akan menekan kinerja emiten saham dan akan membuat pasar merespons negatif. Perbankan akan cenderung meningkatkan cost of debt kepada emiten sehingga akan menekan net profit-nya sehingga EPS turun.

Di sisi lain, emiten yang memiliki obligasi dengan floating rate juga akan terkena dampaknya. Jadi kestabilan pasar modal 2012 akan lebih ditentukan oleh kebijakan moneter BI.

Kenaikan inflasi tersebut dinilai tidak berdampak signifikan terhadap kinerja ekonomi nasional yang cukup solid terutama karena permintaan domestik dan ekspor komoditas RI relatif stabil dan cukup kuat.

Selain itu, prospek pertumbuhan infrastruktur pada 2012 juga akan menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Jadi secara umum, guncangan kenaikan BBM tersebut dapat diredam oleh indikator-indikator makro yang kuat.

Namun jika kenaikan di atas Rp1.500, tampaknya ada resistensi yang kuat dari pasar karena akan menimbulkan tekanan fundamental emiten BEI. Beberapa sektor yang akan berpotensi tertekan untuk sementara saja, seperti sektor konsumer, automotif, properti dan jasa keuangan.

Hal yang lebih mencemaskan pelaku pasar justru jika kenaikan BBM tertunda atau bahkan dibatalkan sama sekali karena akan menimbulkan risiko fiskal yang lebih besar ketimbang BBM dinaikkan. Pasar menilai defisit fiskal yang akan terjadi lebih berisiko dan merugikan perekonomian nasional.

Sejalan dengan analisis tersebut, para investor asing pun cenderung mendukung kenaikan BBM dengan besaran tersebut dari pada mengambil risiko defisit fiskal di atas 3-4%.

Saat ini, ekonomi global sudah menunjukkan pemulihan di jalur positif terutama AS (The Fed) yang berhasil melakukan kebijakan moneter untuk penciptaan lapangan kerja mulai menunjukkan hasil. Meskipun UE masih terbelit masalah imbalances fiskal, namun beberapa upaya Bank Sentral Eropa dan IMF mulai menunjukkan hasil positif. Kondisi global ke depan diprediksi akan memberikan tenaga tambahan bagi IHSG hingga 4.600 di akhir tahun.
Author: Perdana Wahyu Sentosa
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