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Kinerja Astra Agro Lestari Makin Meningkat
Published: 3 Oct 2019 09:18 WIB


IMQ, Jakarta —  Kinerja PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) terus meningkat seiring membaiknya harga minyak kelapa sawit atau crude palm oil (CPO) sepanjang semester kedua 2019.

Pada minggu lalu, harga CPO kontrak pengiriman Desember 2019 di Malaysia Derrivative Exchange berada di level RM 2.170 per metrik ton. Pelan tapi pasti, harga CPO mulai kembali naik dalam beberapa waktu terakhir.

Asal tahu saja, 9 Juli 2019 lalu harga komoditas ini sempat berada di level RM 2.042 per metrik ton atau terendah sepanjang 2019 berjalan.

Analis Panin Sekuritas, Juan Oktavianus, mengatakan bisnis AALI sangat tergantung pada pergerakan harga CPO global. Begitu ada perbaikan harga CPO, pendapatan AALI berpotensi meningkat.

"Kami melihat kenaikan harga CPO masih cenderung terbatas sehingga kemungkinan pertumbuhan kinerja AALI belum tentu setinggi tahun lalu," katanya dalam risetnya.

Sementara itu, analis Jasa Capital Utama, Chris Apriliony, menilai semester II 2019 dapat menjadi titik balik bagi harga CPO yang dapat dimaksimalkan oleh AALI. Pasalnya, keberlangsungan perang dagang membuat China berupaya meningkatkan lagi konsumsi CPO.

"Hal ini akibat produk minyak kedelai yang kian sulit diimpor seiring pemberlakukan tarif impor oleh Amerika Serikat (AS)," ujarnya.

Juan mengungkapkan, adanya perayaan tahunan di kuartal IV nanti juga bisa menjadi katalis positif bagi harga CPO global. AALI pun bisa menggenjot produksi CPO untuk diekspor ke berbagai negara yang merayakan peristiwa tersebut, misalnya India.

"Kendati demikian, potensi perbaikan harga CPO secara signifikan baru akan terlihat di tahun depan. Penyebabnya berasal dari realisasi pencampuran bahan bakar minyak dengan minyak kelapa sawit atau biodiesel 30% (B30)," tutur Juan.

Lebih lanjut, uji coba penggunaan B30 sebenarnya sudah dilaksanakan di periode Mei hingga Oktober tahun ini. Penerapan B30 tentu akan mendorong permintaan CPO di dalam negeri.

"Penyerapan CPO di Indonesia bisa bertambah 3 juta ton kalau B30 terwujud," terang Juan.

Juan menambahkan, tekanan yang masih mengintai harga CPO membuat AALI mau tidak mau melakukan efisiensi. Sebab, pelemahan harga CPO selain membuat pendapatan AALI turun juga mengakibatkan belanja modal atau capital expenditure (capex) menyusut.

"Karena capex bakal lebih kecil, AALI tidak bisa leluasa ekspansi," ujarnya.

Juan merekomendasikan hold saham AALI dengan target harga Rp9.500 per saham dan Chris merekomendasikan beli saham AALI dengan target Rp12.000 per saham.
Author: Indra BP
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