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Tuesday, Jan-21 2020 10:15 WIB
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Menguji Kekuatan Bisnis Indah Kiat
Published: 23 Jul 2019 09:19 WIB


IMQ, Jakarta —  Saat ini, PT Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper Tbk (INKP) memiliki kapasitas produksi Pulp 2,9 juta ton per tahun, kertas 1,6 juta ton per ton tahun dan Industrial Paper 2,1 juta ton per tahun dengan utilisasi produksi Pulp, Kertas, dan Industrial Paper masing-masing telah mencapai 91%, 90% dan 92%.

Analis Samuel Sekuritas Albertha Palma menuturkan, pertumbuhan volume produksi sangat terbatas dengan utilisasi pabrik perseroan telah sampai di titik optimumnya. Selain itu, dipastikan tahun ini tidak ada pertambahan kapasitas.

“INKP memutuskan untuk menunda membangun pabrik di Karawang yang seharusnya akan menambah 35,7% kapasitas industrial paper atau sebanyak 750 ribu ton atau 11,4% dari total agregat kapasitas produksi saat ini,” ujar Albertha dalam risetnya edisi Juli 2019.

Penjualan ekspor pada kuartal I tahun ini turun 17,8% yoy menjadi US$327,7 juta, sedangkan penjualan lokal hanya tumbuh 0,8% menjadi US$448 juta. Penjualan tujuan Asia turun 31,5% yoy menjadi US$191,4 juta akibat perlambatan permintaan dari China.

Namun, untuk destinasi Eropa meningkat 24,9% menjadi US$46,1 juta serta AS yang naik 133,6% yoy menjadi US$38,7 juta.

“Meski demikian, kami menilai INKP masih tetap rentan terhadap perkembangan permintaan dari Asia,” ujarnya.

Strategi country mix yang dilakukan INKP memang menurunkan porsi ekspor Asia sebanyak 1200bps dari kuartal I 2018 sebesar 71% menjadi 59%, namun ia memprediksi kontribusi wilayah Asia tidak akan jauh berubah di kisaran 55% pada tahun ini.

Volume penjualan perseroan pada kuartal I 2019 secara agregat mencapai 1,08 juta ton atau turun 4,4% yoy. Volume pada segmen Pulp dan Kertas juga melemah 9,7% yoy menjadi 661 ribu ton, sedangkan Industrial Paper naik 5,3% yoy menjadi 419 ribu ton.

INKP saat ini lebih fokus ke bisnis Industrial Paper, dimana capex sebesar US$280 juta ditujukan untuk memperbaharui mesin industrial paper.

“Meski volume terjaga, kami memprediksi Operating Profit akan melemah 1,6% yoy sepanjang tahun ini akibat OPM di segmen Industrial Paper hanya mencapai 15%, jauh lebih rendah dibanding Pulp dan Kertas yang mencapai 22%,” paparnya.

Oleh sebab itu, ia merekomendasikan jual untuk saham INKP dengan target price Rp7.175 dengan potential downside 13,0% (TP sebelumnya Rp11.300). Adapun, risiko yang dihadapi adalah naiknya harga jual produk-produk Pulp dan Kertas diatas estimasi, serta menguatnya permintaan Asia terutama dari China.
 
Author: Susan Silaban
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