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Tuesday, Jan-21 2020 09:41 WIB
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Potensi Penguatan CPO Lambungkan LSIP
Published: 5 Jul 2019 07:47 WIB


IMQ, Jakarta —  Peluang penguatan harga CPO , berpotensi mendorong kinerja London Sumatra Plantation Tbk (LSIP) yang lebih baik sepanjang tahun ini.

“LSIP tetap menjadi top pick dalam sektor CPO seiring fundamental yang kuat,” kata Analis Samuel Sekuritas Albertha Palma.

Level inventory CPO yang di bawah rata-rata historis di bawah 2,5 juta ton dan implementasi B30 yang dipercepat berpeluang memberikan angin segar untuk harga CPO. Di sisi lain, secara historis, ekspor CPO cenderung menguat 40-50% MoM di 1–2 bulan sebelum perayaan Diwali yang jatuh pada Oktober.

“Sehingga, kami perkirakan harga CPO di Juli–September berpeluang menguat dengan estimasi harga di sisa tahun 2019 sebesar MYR 2.450 per metrik ton (MT), di mana paruh pertama MYR 2.160 per MT,” ujarnya.

Pada 2020, Samuel tetap memperkirakan harga rata-rata di level MYR 2.500 per ton.

Sejalan dengan meningkatnya permintaan paruh kedua tahun ini, volume penjualan CPO LSIP berpeluang meningkat 12% YoU menjadi 489 ribu MT, meski harga jual rata-rata relatif stabil di level Rp7.687 per kg.

“Kami memproyeksikan pendapatan LSIP di FY19 tumbuh 11% YoY menjadi Rp4,4 trilliun dengan laba bersih mencapai Rp435 miliar naik 32% yoy. Sementara untuk 2020, laba bersih di Rp627 miliar dengan volume penjualan yang tumbuh 7% yoy dan harga jual rata-rata yang naik 9% yoy,” hitungnya.

Ia menambahkan, fokus LSIP dengan pure upstream, menyebabkan tingkat profitabilitas LSIP menjadi yang tertinggi dibanding perusahaan lain.

Disisi lain, LSIP tidak berencana untuk untuk melakukan pencairan hutang dalam beberapa tahun ke depan, sehingga akan membuat LSIP menjadi perusahaan dengan fundamental yang baik yaitu, clean balance sheet dengan zero debt level.

Oleh sebab itu, Samuel merekomendasikan beli untuk LSIP  dengan target price Rp1.420, sebab memiliki 23% potensi kenaikan dan merefleksikan P/E’ 2019 berada di posisi 22,2 kali. Adapun resiko investasi, yakni kondisi cuaca yang kurang mendukung, fluktuasi MYR, serta harga CPO yang di bawah estimasi.
Author: Susan Silaban
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