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Friday, Oct-31 2014 00:31 WIB
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Write Down Utang Yunani, Angkat Pasar Saham Global
Published: 27 Oct 2011 11:44 WIB


IMQ, Jakarta —  Konferensi tingkat tinggi Uni Eropa “Sommet Euro Summit” malam lalu akhirnya menyepakati solusi praktis namun tidak substansial terhadap krisis utang Eropa dengan cara pemangkasan utang (write down) sebesar 50% utang Yunani dan meningkatkan dana solusi krisis menjadi 1 triliun euro.

Solusi hasil perdebatan panjang ini lebih bertujuan untuk mencegah krisis Yunani menular ke beberapa negara yang mengalami masalah keuangan seperti Portugal, Italia, Spanyol dan lainnya.

Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel menilai write down 50% merupakan solusi yang benar dari Euro Zone. Tentu saja pihak pemegang obligasi Yunani sangat dirugikan oleh kesepakatan ini karena hal ini sama saja dengan selective default by summit.

Padahal sebelumnya Charles Dallara, managing director IIF, menyatakan “tidak ada kesepakatan apapun dalam setiap poin summit”. Langkah write down ini ditindak lanjuti IMF untuk menyelesaikan krisis Yunani serta Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) akan mengendalikan nilai penjualan obligasi default tersebut di pasar sekunder.

Solusi ini memberikan kekuatan baru bagi euro, indeks pasar global dan S&P 500.
Semalam, indeks pasar modal global naik tajam merespon keputusan ini. Dow Jones +2,9%, DAX Jerman +5,4% CAC Paris +6,4% dan FTSE London +2,8%. Di regional Asia juga mengalami hal yang sama Nikkei +1,36%, Hangseng +2,13% dan Indeks Shanghai +1,56%.

Naiknya indeks global juga didukung data ekonomi dan kinerja emiten AS plus meningkatnya harga minyak mentah dunia sebesar +4%, Gold +1,3%, Nickel +4,1% dan Tin +3,2%.

Kenaikan Wall Street hingga +339,51 poin mengangkat DJIA di atas level 12.000 dan merupakan kenaikan saham blue chip tertinggi dalam sejarah terkait dengan turunnya The CBOE Volatility Index ke level 25.

Selain itu, membaiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi AS juga memberikan kekuatan baru bagi pasar global. Pertumbuhan PDB AS Q3/2011 sebesar 2,5% dibandingkan pada Q2/2011 yang hanya naik 1,3%.

Selain itu, turunnya klaim tunjangan pengangguran AS sebesar 2.000 unit ikut memberikan kepastian baru bagi para investor global.

IHSG ikut terdongkrak naik hingga tertinggi 3.876 pada Jumat (18/10) ini dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS juga menguat dari Rp8.830 dibandingkan penutupan kemarin yaitu Rp8.865 per dolar.

Namun kenaikan IHSG juga rawan profit taking karena sudah mengalami rally dalam sepekan terakhir dengan fluktuasi yang cukup tinggi. Hari ini, level support 3.733 dan resistance 3.872.

Dengan keluarnya solusi terhadap Yunani, pemulihan ekonomi AS dan meredanya ketidakpastian ekonomi global serta dukungan makro ekonomi makro Indonesia yang baik, maka diprediksi IHSG akan mengalami penguatan hingga level 4.000 di akhir 2011. Namun solusi pemangkasan utang Yunani tersebut menunjukkan ketidakmampuan ekonomi Eropa secara substansial di masa depan.
Author: Perdana Wahyu Sentosa
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